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Conclusion

conclusion

In conclusion, ...
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What decision theory is

and how it’s construed.

Why we need an anchor for belief and desire,

and the difficulty of combining decision theory with the existence of both habitual and goal-directed processes.

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the two arguments

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The first argument

first argument (inconsistent set of claims)

2. Decision theory provides an ‘elucidation of the notions of subjective probability and subjective desirability or utility’ (Jeffrey, 1983, p. xi).

3. The notions elucidated are those of belief and desire, which also feature in the model of goal-directed processes.

4. Some instrumental actions are dominated by habitual processes.

5. Habitual and goal-directed processes can pull in opposing directions.

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The second argument

second argument

Problem: how to characterize the goal-directed process such that we can generate action predictions.

Candidate solution: the goal-directed process is the computation of expected utility.

Objection: the goal-directed process does not compute expected utiltiy.

Illustration: Ellsberg Paradox

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next steps

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This course is based on a simple challenge.

challenge

Discover why people act,
individually and jointly.